This is the second annual installment of this blog and yes, much of it is copy and pasted from last year. If you are enough of a fan and have a good enough memory to have noticed that, I can't tell me honored I am. If not, thank you for reading and I hope you enjoy nonetheless:
This may come as very ironic considering a previous blog I wrote last year telling a story that cemented my philosophy that fantasy football has a huge element of luck and none of us know shit about it. Well, I still completely believe that. However, I have recently adopted the same mantra about fantasy football as I have about poker (possibly the only vice I have stronger than fantasy): it is all about putting yourself at statistical advantage to get lucky.
It will probably be obvious if you read on but I am by no means a professional fantasy player with any kind of profound wisdom or insight. I am however VERY experienced and this is the format I approach my draft with and how I will be approaching all my drafts this season.
I have ranked all position players from 1-220. I upped it to 220 from 200 last year due to the growth of the 16 team league. However, I used a 12 team league as the example for this as it is a happy medium.
I rank based on 1/2 pt PPR scoring for two reasons: because I think it is best scoring system run a league off of and so this list can be used to help you in a standard, half, or full point PPR league.
The ranking doesn't necessarily reflect where I think they will finish in fantasy though. I draft based on a tier system, what rounds I am willing to take a player relative to his position. If you are drafting in a 2QB/Superflex league simply up the QB rankings by 4 rounds.
I try to write this in a simple, easy to digest manner. Again, I am no pro writer or fantasy player, but maybe this is just one more piece to chew on...or mock...either is acceptable.
Round 1: Your Stud
I went extremely WR heavy last year which honestly worked out fine. But with the propensity of the RB by committee strategy, the pendulum has almost swung back to going RB first round almost no matter what, minus the top 5 Elite WR's in the league.
1 Saquon Barkley NYG RB1
2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB2
3 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB3
4 Alvin Kamara NO RB4
5 LeVeon Bell NYJ RB5
6 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR1
7 Davante Adams GB WR2
8 Odell Beckham Jr CLE WR3
9 Julio Jones ATL WR4
10 Michael Thomas NO WR5
11 David Johnson ARI RB6
12 Joe Mixon CIN RB7
Round 2 Your....other....stud
Okay I don't know a clever name for this group but these first 2 picks are going to traditionally be about 20-25% of your weekly scoring so make it a good one as well. I wouldn't blame you if you were hesitant to go WR-WR these first 2 picks though. For example if I'm in that 6 spot and it goes chalk, I absolutely take Hopkins there, but I completely understand if you pass on WR8-11 and take Fournette or Chubb at that 19 spot.
13 James Conner PIT RB8
14 Dalvin Cook MIN RB9
15 Nick Chubb CLE RB10
16 Todd Gurley LAR RB11
17 Antonio Brown OAK WR6
18 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR7
19 Keenan Allen LAC WR8
20 Mike Evans TB WR9
21 T.Y. Hilton IND WR10
22 Tyreek Hill KC WR11
23 Leonard Fournette JAX RB12
24 Devonta Freeman ATL RB13
Round 3&4 The rest of your core
Hopefully by now I've got at least one RB if not 2. Now it's time to start going best available crazy! If I am in a standard league with a FLEX position, I am just taking the best 2 players regardless of position. There are only 3 TE's I am considering in these rounds but if two of them are best 2 available, so be it! I've got a bad ass FLEX and great trade bait. Also, as of publishing time this is where I feel comfortable rolling the dice on Melvin Gordon. I can recover if I miss on my 3rd rounder, it's infinitely tougher to recover from your 1st or 2nd rounder sitting out the year (just ask Bell owners from last year).
25 Travis Kelce KC TE1
26 Zach Ertz PHI TE2
27 George Kittle SF TE3
28 Melvin Gordon LAC RB14
29 Marlon Mack IND RB15
30 Damien Williams KC RB16
31 Derrick Henry TEN RB17
32 Aaron Jones GB RB18
33 Amari Cooper DAL WR12
34 A.J. Green CIN WR13
35 Adam Thielen MIN WR14
36 Stefon Diggs MIN WR15
37 Julian Edelman NE WR16
38 Brandin Cooks LAR WR17
39 Kerryon Johnson DET RB19
40 Josh Jacobs OAK RB20
41 Chris Carson SEA RB21
42 Phillip Lindsay DEN RB22
43 Mark Ingram BAL RB23
44 Sony Michel NE RB24
45 Robert Woods LAR WR18
46 Cooper Kupp LAR WR19
47 Tyler Lockett SEA WR20
48 Kenny Golladay DET WR21
49 Chris Godwin TB WR22
Round 5&6 Shore up your starters
This is when I start paying attention how my roster construction is shaping up. If everyone is going RB crazy and I've went WR-RB-WR-WR I am most likely taking a RB here even if some of the WR15-24's have fallen. Or if all 3 of the top-tier TE's have went off the board there are still some quality contributing TE's that be snagged in this range.
50 David Montgomery CHI RB25
51 Kenyan Drake MIA RB26
52 James White NE RB27
53 Tarik Cohen CHI RB28
54 Tevin Coleman SF RB29
55 Lamar Miller HOU RB30
56 Derrius Guice WAS RB31
57 Latavius Murray NO RB32
58 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR23
59 D.J. Moore CAR WR24
60 Calvin Ridley ATL WR25
61 Robby Anderson NYJ WR26
62 Mike Williams LAC WR27
63 Tyler Boyd CIN WR28
64 Allen Robinson CHI WR29
65 Jarvis Landry CLE WR30
66 Marvin Jones DET WR31
67 Evan Engram NYG TE4
68 Hunter Henry LAC TE5
69 O.J. Howard TB TE6
70 Jared Cook NO TE7
71 Sammy Watkins KC WR32
72 Dante Pettis SF WR33
73 Will Fuller HOU WR34
74 Christian Kirk ARI WR35
Round 7&8 Start thinking QB...but you probably won't get one
This is probably my most unorthodox philosophy. It's not that I think that freak show Mahomes or whoever is QB1 that year is fantasy-wise virtually equal to QB2-10, I have just found they are not 3 rounds better. With all of the rules protecting QB's and pass catchers there isn't that much separation between one of the QB's commonly taken in the 3rd round vs one taken in the 7th or 8th. Hell, none of these QB's may even be here by the time these rounds come along. I just keep chugging and filling my roster with viable WR's and RB's. Keep in mind Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff were the #3 and #6 Fantasy QB's last year.
75 Pat Mahomes KC QB1
76 Andrew Luck IND QB2
77 Aaron Rodgers GB QB3
78 Deshaun Watson HOU QB4
79 Matt Ryan ATL QB5
80 Baker Mayfield CLE QB6
81 Cam Newton CAR QB7
82 Drew Brees NO QB8
83 Carson Wentz PHI QB9
84 Russell Wilson SEA QB10
85 Rashaad Penny SEA RB33
86 Darrell Henderson LAR RB34
87 Miles Sanders PHI RB35
88 Jordan Howard PHI RB36
89 Royce Freeman DEN RB37
90 Sterling Shepard NYG WR36
91 Corey Davis TEN WR37
92 Courtland Sutton DEN WR38
93 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR39
94 Curtis Samuel CAR WR40
95 Dede Westbrook JAX WR41
96 Golden Tate NYG WR42
97 Eric Ebron IND TE8
98 Vance McDonald PIT TE9
99 David Njoku CLE TE10
Rounds 9&10 Handcuffs and Bye Week FLEX Options
As I stated earlier, I approach fantasy as "putting yourself at a statistical advantage to get lucky" which essentially translates to minimizing risk. This is why I handcuff (own backups that will see action should there be an injury or suspension) whenever possible. Even with WR's. For example, if I drafted Davante Adams in the first round, I am probably eyeing Allison or Valdes-Scantling around this area even if there are players I have ranked slightly higher available. I like to have a monopoly on team's whole position units, not just players. And it really doesn't hurt you that much during bye weeks. If you have to play Allison or Valdes-Scantling in the FLEX one week, you having his teammate doesn't change what his production would have been. These are the rounds I usually start seeking handcuffs to my core players.
100 Ronald Jones II TB RB 38
101 LeSean McCoy BUF RB39
102 Austin Ekeler LAC RB40
103 Jerick McKinnon SF RB41
104 Matt Breida SF RB42
105 Peyton Barber TB RB43
106 Carlos Hyde KC RB44
107 Keke Coutee HOU WR43
108 N'Keal Harry NE WR44
109 DeSean Jackson PHI WR45
110 Geronimo Allison GB WR46
111 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR47
112 Anthony Miller CHI WR48
113 Trey Burton CHI TE11
114 Delanie Walker TEN TE12
115 Austin Hooper ATL TE13
116 Greg Olsen CAR TE14
117 Jack Doyle IND TE15
118 Jimmy Graham GBTE16
119 Jordan Reed WASTE17
120 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE18
121 Nyheim Hines IND RB45
122 Adrian Peterson WAS RB46
123 Ito Smith ATL RB47
124 Jaylen Samuels PIT RB48
125 Kareem Hunt CLE RB49
126 Dion Lewis TEN RB50
127 Kalen Ballage MIA RB51
128 Donta Foreman IND RB52
Rounds 11&12 Viable QB's and Breakout Players
If I did get one of the above 10 QB's, I'm done taking QB's and I am right back to getting FLEX's and handcuff options. There can still be some relatively high floor players taken down here that are going to see the field plenty. If all the first 10 QB's are taken I am REALLY focusing on the position here. I have even been known to go back-to-back QB's in these rounds and stream weekly or see if one stands out over another. The only QB in the top 10 I might consider drafting a 2nd QB with is Baker...simply because we're not 100% sure what that offense might look like. This is also where you might reach on that rookie WR or RB that you think might thrive in their new system. That play has won more than one league.
129 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB11
130 Jared Goff LAR QB12
131 Dak Prescott DAL QB13
132 Jameis Winston TB QB14
133 Kyler Murray ARI QB15
134 Philip Rivers LAC QB16
135 Tom Brady NE QB17
136 Mitch Trubisky CHI QB18
137 Lamar Jackson BAL QB19
138 Donte Moncrief PIT WR49
139 Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR50
140 James Washington PIT WR51
141 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR52
142 Michael Gallup DAL WR53
143 Devin Funchess INDWR54
144 Daesean Hamilton DEN WR55
145 Tyrell Williams OAK WR56
146 Kenny Stills MIA WR57
147 Parris Campbell IND WR58
148 Jamison Crowder WAS WR59
149 Tre'Quan Smith NO WR60
150 Albert Wilson MIA WR61
151 Marquise Brown BAL WR62
152 Adam Humphries TEN WR63
153 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR64
154 Damien Harris NE RB53
155 Duke Johnson HOU RB54
156 Jamaal Williams GB RB55
157 Chris Thompson WAS RB56
158 Devin Singletary BUF RB57
159 CJ Anderson DET RB58
160 Giovani Bernard CIN RB59
161 Mark Andrews BAL TE19
162 Noah Fant DEN TE20
163 T.J. Hockenson DET TE21
164 Marqise Lee JAX WR65
165 Deebo Samuel SF WR66
166 Mecole Hardman KCWR67
167 DeVante Parker MIA WR68
168 John Brown BUF WR69
169 Marquise Goodwin SF WR70
Fliers and deep league picks
Alright, if you haven't gotten a QB or TE by now you need to (no judgement from me). Otherwise, SWING FOR THE FENCES! No point in being safe here. I pick the unsigned Free Agents, Rookies that looked good in preseason, guys due for a resurrection, etc. They're most likely getting cut come heavy bye week time anyway...I shoot for the moon!
170 Kirk Cousins MIN QB20
171 Josh Allen BUF QB21
172 Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB22
173 Sam Darnold NYJ QB23
174 Matthew Stafford DET QB24
175 Robert Foster BUF WR71
176 Andy Isabella ARI WR72
177 Paul Richardson WAS WR73
178 AJ Brown TEN WR74
179 DJ Chark JAX WR75
180 Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR76
181 Randall Cobb DAL WR77
182 Ted Ginn Jr NO WR78
183 Zay Jones BUF WR79
184 David Moore SEA WR 80
185 Antonio Callaway CLE WR81
186 Josh Doctson WAS WR82
187 Nelson Algholor PHI WR83
188 Willie Snead IV BAL WR84
189 Taylor Gabriel CHI WR85
190 John Ross CIN WR86
191 Trey Quinn WAS WR87
192 Equanimeous St. Brown GB WR88
193 Chris Herndon NYJ TE22
194 Dallas Goedert PHI TE23
195 Mike Gesicki MIA TE24
196 Tyler Eifert CIN TE25
197 Gerald Everett LAR TE26
198 Jason Witten DAL TE27
199 Justice Hill BAL RB60
200 Gus Edwards BAL RB61
201 Alexander Mattison MIN RB62
202 Jalen Richard OAK RB63
203 Rex Burkhead NE RB64
204 Mike Davis CHI RB65
205 Theo Riddick DEN RB66
206 Chase Edmonds ARI RB67
207 Darwin Thompson KC RB68
208 Doug Martin OAK RB69
209 Ryquell Armstead JAX RB70
210 Frank Gore BUF RB71
211 TJ Yeldon BUF RB72
212 Kenneth Dixon BAL RB73
213 Justin Jackson LAC RB74
214 Derek Carr OAK QB25
215 Andy Dalton CIN QB26
216 Marcus Mariota TEN QB27
217 Nick Foles JAX QB28
218 Joe Flacco DEN QB29
219 Eli Manning NYG QB30
220 Dwayne Haskins WAS QB31
Defense and Kicker
I have never looked back at any fantasy football success and said "I couldn't have done it without *insert defense or kicker". There is no circumstance I don't go Defense next to last and Kicker last in that order unless I don't have to draft either and fill it later. The only instance I can halfway understand this year is the Chicago defense but honestly I bet there are still weeks they are not the best option.
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